From the technical mechanism of VR, its most important features are immersion and experience. This feature determines the rigid demand for VR in the manufacturing, military, and cultural sectors. In fact, the concept of VR has been proposed as early as the 1960s, but it was not until 2013 that major manufacturers introduced VR devices and products that were immersive and oriented to the end consumer market. The reason is mainly due to the large bottleneck of electronic and optical technology, and failed to achieve breakthroughs for a long period of time. As the technology matures, the VR market has entered the start-up phase, and a large-scale market launch will be formed in the next three to five years. At the same time, VR technology is accelerating the extension to related industries, and the industrial ecosystem surrounding VR technology and products is constantly improving. Therefore, competing for the first-mover advantage at the starting line has become a top priority for VR industry participants.
While international IT companies are aggressively exploring the VR market, Chinese companies are also rushing to enter the VR industry. According to estimates by Ai Media Consulting, the market size of China's VR industry in 2015 was 1.54 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 5.66 billion yuan in 2016. The market size in 2020 will exceed 55 billion yuan. However, the recent launch of PC-side VR devices by domestic companies is similar to that of game consoles, and market promotion and popularity are greatly limited. Contrast with this, with the increase in the popularity of smartphones, China Mobile VR has a large base of potential users, and the overall market potential and development space of mobile VR is huge.
According to statistics from international research firm eMarketer, the number of smartphone users in China will exceed 600 million in 2016. As long as 1% of smartphone users choose to spend hundreds of dollars using mobile VR, millions of users will also be generated. Faced with broad market prospects, domestic smartphones and PC manufacturers have begun to expand their business in this field, and emerging companies are not far behind.
At this stage, the opportunities and challenges of China's development of the VR industry coexist. In terms of hardware, China's VR component technology is in the lead, but the terminal equipment level needs to be improved. In terms of VR software content, domestic online video and game companies have begun to exert their strength. However, domestic VR companies are generally in a state of strategic follow-up and do not yet have the competitiveness to lead the development of the industry.
Recently, industry-leading companies continue to introduce new technologies and new products. At the same time, VR software and its applications supporting hardware devices and products are increasingly enriched, effectively stimulating consumer demand. Demand expansion is first manifested in the hot sales of VR devices, especially the explosive growth of head-mounted display shipments. The idea that "VR will become the next generation platform" quickly became a consensus in the investment field.
Despite the huge demand potential, there are still uncertainties in the future development of the VR industry. After the investment climate, VR companies need to face a series of more realistic problems such as technology upgrade, marketing, industry standards, resource integration, etc. The true test of the sustainable sustainability of VR enterprises in technology, market, policies and regulations has not yet fully manifested. From the perspective of the characteristics of the industry chain and its evolution, the cycle of the introduction of higher-parameter VR products will be shortened. With the advancement of technology, the quality of hardware equipment continues to increase, and the cost and price are lower, which will further promote the popularity of VR.
The development and innovation of technology is a double-edged sword. VR also has duality: it has both beneficial aspects for human beings, and it cannot be ignored that, at the current stage of technology, it also has a side that harms human interests. On the one hand, the amazing fidelity of virtual time and space tends to make the subject produce a "autistic" state. On the other hand, the virtual world has both knowledge-oriented information and a large number of low-level vulgar information and even deception. VR will produce virtual "alienation", people forget their self and become "other." In addition, virtual technology also has limitations that are difficult to avoid in the development process. This limitation comes from both technical logic and natural laws, as well as from social ethics and real productivity.
Virtual reality is an emerging technology closely related to our survival. As this technology matures, its impact on society will also become more and more profound. (The author is the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
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