Mr. Yingrong Fang, vice president of global sales for Trina Solar Group, has not been off work for many days in a row.
In the recent period of time, he received almost a dozen calls from his office at his office in Changzhou. All come to the same purpose, that is, they can purchase some components from Tianhe as much as possible. While the latter is full and overloaded, the order is still too late for delivery.
“In the past, customers would still call, but they wouldn’t fight at all and go straight to the door. Some customers only have practical points to meet with their sales leaders. Some customers are really anxious because they can't get the components and the project can only stop there. There are also some customers who follow suit - seeing that the market's components are so sought after to follow suit." Ingrid smiled and told the Shanghai Daily reporter.
This scene is not unique to Tianhe. The reporter learned last week that several leading photovoltaic companies in China learned that, on the occasion of the on-grid subsidy policy node on June 30 (known as the “6·30†commonly known in the industry), photovoltaic rushing tides have renewed. Major manufacturers With full production, components have been hard to come by.
Hot market suddenly emerged
On May 17th, at the entrance of the Trina Solar Power Plant on Tianhe Road, Changzhou, the originally straight and wide road appeared to be slightly narrow due to the fact that the outermost two lanes were full of colored vehicles. These two vehicles that have been parked in open-air parking lanes are all vehicles of Tianhe employees and customers. They can't see at a glance - and the market is hot.
After entering the assembly plant in the factory area, the scene in front of us confirmed the above conjecture: all the lines from welding, laminating, laminating, packing, testing, and packaging were extremely busy. The rumbling machines roared up and down. The manipulator fluttered in the air. In some processes that have not yet been fully automated, such as lamination welding and junction box welding lines, the assembly workers turn their hands to fly, and the speed and speed of movement are as good as the machines.
It is understood that this workshop can be equipped with 5,600 components a day and is currently running at full capacity.
"This year's '6·30' is more severe than last year, and the contradiction between supply and demand is very prominent." Yinrong Fang told reporters that because many of the projects this year are indicators for August last year, the time is short and there are not many conditions, resulting in a very fast progress Even in April, there was no large-scale shipment. The various component manufacturers are not willing to prepare inventory because of the high price and high cost of silicon materials in the previous stage.
However, from the end of April and the beginning of May, the market suddenly blows out. “Because the policy is clear, some projects must be completed before '6.30' to get subsidies. From the beginning of May to June 15, the market falls into a serious shortage. At present, the overall supply of the market is only 7, 8 GW, and the amount of grid-connected electricity is expected to be 15 GW."
He disclosed that at present, the company is no longer taking orders in the Chinese market because it has no production capacity in the second quarter. In the third and fourth quarters, some long orders are still in hand and the overall orders are full.
The prevailing domestic market conditions coupled with the ever-changing overseas storyline have made the Ingrid party overwhelmed - his personal daily working hours are as high as 16 hours.
Hairun Photovoltaics, another veteran photovoltaic company in Jiangyin, was also recently fully productive. Qiu Xin, vice president of the company reported to the reporter that the company's orders have been placed in August and September, the price is basically locked.
In recent years, the sudden emergence of a new component of the sudden emergence of new products - GCL-integrated (4.170,-0.01,-0.24%) Executive Director Dong Shuguang, said in an interview with the Shanghai Daily reporter that the company is also recently full production, the entire second quarter of production and sales booming, The market has been hotter than expected.
“This year’s 6.30′′ was a bit later than it was in previous years. It was originally thought that after the Lantern Festival, it began to stock up. Because many companies did not prepare for this year’s rush-preparation earlier this year, but until the end of March, the market gradually became hot, and now it is The components are hard to come by. Every day, a large group of people ask us if we can order more goods. Some of them are unable to get a list and try their luck, while others are expecting a change in the market,†said Dong Shuguang.
He said that after all, the entire market has not changed and the production capacity has exceeded demand. Therefore, the industry generally believes that this year's “6·30†will not be imbalanced between supply and demand, but it has not been so popular that the whole “6·30†period is not only tight between supply and demand. It is also very strong.
"The battery led by last year's 6.30's took the lead in this year, which has risen 7% to 8% month-on-month, and supply exceeds supply," said Dong Shuguang.
It is reported that at the beginning of April this year, the battery price remained at 1.55 to 1.57 yuan/watt, and it has now risen to 1.7 yuan/watt.
Crashed cliffs may not be reproduced
It is worth noting that after the “6·30†market last year, the demand and price of the cliff fell sharply. The industry was in danger once and for all, so that at the end of the year, officials also introduced supplementary indicators to help them.
However, in the eyes of the above-mentioned photovoltaic company executives, such a slump may not be repeated this year.
“We expect the price drop and volume adjustment will be relatively flat, and it will not happen last year’s cliff crash. There were almost no orders in the third quarter of last year, and everyone panicked. But this year the water has squeezed a lot, plus the Indian market and A new batch of 'leader' plans announced that the subsequent pull of these factors will help balance production and sales." Qiu Xin said, "This year's 'leader' plan is limited by factors such as capacity, cost, etc. It will only be implemented 9:30 or later, so the off-season in the second half of the year will not be as light as last year, and there will be a process of overall cost reduction. This is also in line with the trend of new technology input, silicon materials, and raw materials.
He believes that the past few years, the cost of the photovoltaic industry has been declining, in line with the direction of photovoltaic access to parity, price reduction is inevitable. However, in the first two years, the price cut was to reduce the price and it was a passive decline. In the past two years, the cost of innovation-driven growth has fallen, which is an initiative reduction.
“The price reduction itself is not terrible, and every “6·30′′ will be born after the ecological chain corresponding to the new electricity price, and use another model to measure the investment income. The price reduction does not mean that the profitability of the company is reduced. If the technology is improved, the operating efficiency is improved, The cost of raw and auxiliary materials is optimized, and price reductions may bring more market share and strengthen profitability, said Qiu Xin.
India Rongfang also does not look down on the demand in the third quarter. “From the perspective of capacity structure, the original leader thought that the leader would be in '6.30', but now most of it is clear to '9.30'. From this point of view, some projects in the second half of the year will not be completed in the second quarter, resulting in a non-dimming in the third quarter. This is much better than originally expected. As for the fourth quarter, it is still unclear, depending on the policy of this year. As a whole, this year will not be as low as it was in the third quarter of last year. Globally, the Chinese and overseas markets have just peaked at different levels. Enterprises that rely purely on the Chinese market may have a greater impact, while global companies can achieve a global balance of capacity."
Dong Shuguang told the Shanghai Daily reporter that after the “6·30†era, it should not be the scene of last year. The “9:30†time point needs to be focused because the “leader†and part of the poverty alleviation plan are required to be connected at this time.
However, Dong Shuguang is cautious about the industry's prospects: “Individuals believe that the second quarter of this year may be the high point of demand in the next two years, and there may not be such a good demand from next year to the first half of the following year. This is because the major global markets are all this year. With shrinking, only India is growing, and it is expected to become the third largest market in the world. In the future, single-digit market growth will be the norm, and application forms will be even more abundant."
Lagging backward production capacity
With the market exceeding expectations, some of the industry’s long dead zombie production capacity and backward production capacity are just around the corner.
“A few low-end production capacities of one or two hundred megawatts in Zhejiang, including some partners that have stopped production for many years of silent production, have recently been looking for us, saying that they hope to help us substitute components. We will not use these capacities because production conditions cannot Satisfy our product requirements, but after the recent market conditions that are in short supply, the low-quality products of the second-class companies will continue to enter the market.†The Shanghai Daily reporter expressed his concerns.
In his opinion, there has been no new production capacity for many years, and how the outcome of the resurrection can be imagined. If this resurrection occurs when the relative profit space is abundant, it will be more detrimental to the entire industry; and the backward production capacity cannot be completely cleared out, which is caused by the policy discontinuity. Generally, the indicators released by “6·30†have a long period of land acquisition and a long construction process. If the policy time node is not buffered, it will lead to rush-installation. As soon as the rush-installation occurs, the production process will continue, and it will inevitably lead to the revival of some zombies.
“There are rampages abroad, but it is not as serious as China. First, because of China’s large scale, there is tremendous pressure on production capacity; Second, foreign countries have also made adjustments later, and the term is relaxed. For example, Germany will give 18 to 24 months for enterprises. There is plenty of room.Of course, if the '6.30' is fixed in the future and the implementation level is consistent, the policy environment can still be expected.But although some projects do not have the conditions, they still hope that before the '6.30' Completion, which gives opportunities for backward production capacity." Ingrid Fang said.
Dong Shuguang further explained to reporters that at present domestic battery-end zombies production capacity is almost non-existent, but there is a lot of zombies on the assembly side. “Because the investment is light and depreciation is small, it usually stops and stops. Once there is a chance, the spring breeze is born again. ."
In his view, most of the current “6·30†grabs are large-scale ground power stations. The owners are mostly state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. They have a demand for quality and are unlikely to buy goods from third-tier manufacturers. Therefore, the days of future third-tier manufacturers may not be good. country.
However, Yinrong Fang believes that with the wave of surges, one type of company should maintain a rapid and healthy development, but companies that do not have a global sales network will face enormous challenges.
"From the supply side, this market is a volatile market. The talent structure, supply chain, and long-term supplier lock-in capabilities of a class of companies allow them to effectively gain insights into the market and formulate plans for the sales-side business market through changes in the market's raw materials. The relationship between market size and profits. This is a large enterprise's space, and small businesses will face severe challenges once they have rushed out of the installation period, and it is not ruled out that some companies will lose money.†In the case of Inrong Fang, the efficiency of a class of companies will increase in the future. After a new stage, backward production capacity is not competitive regardless of price.
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