LED chip industry overall fluctuations
In terms of the long-cycle dimension, the LED chip is continuously developed under the driving of “Haize's Lawâ€, and it alternately grows in different fields such as backlight, illumination and display, and the application field and market scale continue to expand. In the short-cycle dimension, due to the mismatch between the supply and demand of LED chip capacity and the negative feedback caused by the amplification effect caused by Over booking in the industry chain, the LED chip industry also has periodic characteristics under the game of supply and demand. .
Short-term view: 1H2018 supply and demand resonance, LED chip profit is relatively stable
As far as the supply side is concerned, when the leading manufacturers rationally expand the factory, it is estimated that the global LED chip production capacity of 1H2018 will increase by only about 5% compared with 4Q2017 (without considering the capacity exit); on the demand side, LED lighting is expected to be 2018. With a year-on-year increase of about 10%, the small spacing in the LED display maintains a growth rate of around 30%. Other sub-segments such as automobiles also have the potential for rapid growth. Overall, the demand side is expected to grow by 8 to 9%. Therefore, 1H2018 LED chip supply and demand is in a weak balance, the price will remain orderly.
Mid- and long-term perspective: LED applications continue to expand, and future price declines will slow down
The penetration rate of the LED lighting market is expected to continue to increase, and the small-pitch LED display will maintain a high growth rate. The Micro LED/Mini LED is expected to open up the LED growth space, and the downstream application fields will bloom more, and the demand for LED chips is expected to maintain a high growth. speed. At the same time, it is expected that the marginal benefits of improving light efficiency will gradually decrease in the future, and the improvement of light efficiency will slow down. Therefore, the cost reduction will also slow down. In the medium and long term, the decline in LED chip prices will tend to be flat.
Capacity transfer, the mainland LED chip leader strong Hengqiang
With the support of local governments, mainland LED chip manufacturers have actively expanded their production by relying on the advantages of capital and scale. The production capacity of LED chips has shifted to the mainland, and the industry concentration has increased significantly. According to data from the High-Tech Research Institute LED Research Institute (GGII), the output value of LED chips in China reached 18.8 billion yuan in 2017, accounting for nearly 40% of the global LED chip production; an increase of 29.7% compared with 2016. In recent years, the localization of MOCVD equipment has helped domestic leaders to consolidate their competitive advantages. At the same time, Sanan Optoelectronics and Huacan Optoelectronics have integrated sapphire substrates upstream, and mainland China LED chip leader Hengqiang.
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