In 2010, the lighting industry will continue to be depressed, or will it prosper? Although it has not yet arrived, we must make predictions and preparations for its arrival in advance.
To explore this answer, we must observe from multiple latitudes: first, the development curve of China's economy; second, the situation of foreign trade exports; third, the growth trend of total domestic consumption; fourth, the growth potential and development opportunities of the industry. For the answers to these questions, their answer is this:
For the first question: Will the development curve of China's economy rise in 2010? Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: First of all, from the economic data of 2009, there is basically no problem in completing the 8% target this year. Next year’s economic pillar is mainly reflected in domestic demand and investment, and domestic demand is expected to be A better performance, although the government will reduce the investment, but the huge investment in 2009 will continue to perform. Therefore, the market situation in 2010 will be further improved.
For the second question: the situation of foreign trade exports. Wei Zhe, CEO of Alibaba, the world's largest B2C website, believes that China's fourth-quarter foreign trade data will turn from negative to positive. The spring of China's foreign trade market has come. However, after spring, it will not be summer immediately. This spring will be very long, and there may even be a few cold currents. He is also reminding China's foreign trade export-oriented manufacturing companies that they must be wary of the possibility of "cold spring." Economic scholar Lang Xianping has even more bluntly reminded Chinese manufacturers that the difficulty of future export trade will certainly be strengthened and will be more difficult. The main reason is that so many countries have exerted great pressure on the exchange rate of the renminbi, in addition to trade. Protectionism also has too many trade-offs, and it is aimed at China. So in this respect, the prospects for trade wars and exchange rate wars are not optimistic.
For the third question: the situation of domestic consumption. Since the financial crisis, China’s export market has fallen sharply. Therefore, the state has launched investment and increased domestic demand to drive the Chinese economy. It seems that the results are very big. Especially in the real estate market, the turnover, sales area and price in 2009 have stabilized upwards, which is enough to see that the rigid consumption demand of Chinese residents for bulk commodities still exists. Then, in the real estate market in 2010, experts predict that there will be a small increase, but the increase will narrow, and consumers will still invest in residential consumption.
For the fourth question: the direction of China's manufacturing industry, including the lighting industry. Bai Lixin, chief consultant of IBM Global Business Consulting's operational strategy, divided the development of the Chinese market into several stages, and clearly pointed out the future consumption trend: the first opportunity, called the golden channel. In the entire industry chain profit distribution, half of the profits are in distribution and channels. For example, Gome and Suning are establishing home appliance distribution channels. So many excellent home appliance companies throw their profits out of the pockets to Gome and Suning. Not the Gome and Suning talents are better than our home appliance entrepreneurs, but they occupy the golden color. channel. Second, China wants to start domestic demand. The hope of the field is in the countryside, and the opportunity for China is in the countryside. If you want to promote consumer goods now, you must firmly grasp the rural market and often have a chance to serve. For example, the first sale price only accounts for 18% of the entire life cycle of the car. Most industrial durable goods, the initial sales only account for less than 20% of the value chain, so the most important opportunity is service. Soften your manufacturing industry and increase the number of services. There are three stages of service. The first stage provides additional services for products. The second stage is independent sales as a service. The third stage commercializes services. .
Lang Xianping pointed out that it is hoped that Chinese manufacturing enterprises will find a new way out from the "6+1" theory, especially to find breakthroughs in system integration capabilities. For example, design, circulation, sales and other aspects should be included in the enterprise M2C system, not just Stay at the level of manufacturing profit.
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