Under the background of the peak of fossil energy and the issue of emission reduction, people are pursuing new energy, and the hottest area is solar energy. The sun's exposure to the Earth's energy generated by an hour is enough for the world's annual energy needs. Therefore, the use of solar energy is seen as the ultimate way to get rid of dependence on oil. If you can use solar energy in a resource-saving way and get a net profit from energy, you can truly claim that it has inexhaustible energy.
1 solar photovoltaic power generation has broad prospects
Since entering the new century, the solar photovoltaic industry has become one of the most attractive emerging industries in the world today. Photovoltaic power generation is a direct power generation method that utilizes solar energy and semiconductor electronic devices to effectively absorb solar radiation energy and convert it into electrical energy. It is the mainstream solar power generation method today. Photovoltaic power generation does not require fuel, no gas emissions, and belongs to the “green†industry. It is characterized by pollution-free, safe, long-lived, simple maintenance, resource inexhaustible and extensive resource distribution. It is considered to be the most important new energy source in the 21st century. Can be widely used in aerospace, communications, energy, agriculture, office facilities, transportation and residential areas.
In recent years, solar photovoltaic has been widely concerned and valued by all countries in the world as a clean and renewable new energy industry. Many governments are increasing their policy support for the industry, and taking new energy industries such as solar photovoltaics as an important measure to lead economic development. China's photovoltaic industry has grown rapidly through technology introduction and innovation, and has now developed into one of the world's largest manufacturing bases for the photovoltaic industry.
In the future, the main market of China's photovoltaic grid-connected power plants will mainly gather in western China, which has the geographical advantage of carrying the development of China's photovoltaic industry. China's new energy resources are rich and have great potential. The development of new energy sources can receive the effect of 'one stone and three birds': first, it can reduce dependence on oil; second, it should cope with the current international financial crisis, expand domestic demand, stimulate investment, and increase employment. To provide a new economic growth point after the financial crisis; the third is to cope with climate change, adjust the energy structure, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and promote sustainable energy development; fourth, seize the commanding heights of future economic development and promote humanity into a green development model, Enhance the international competitiveness of China's energy.
Through the development of new energy sources, the establishment of low-carbon energy systems, technical systems and industrial structures, and the gradual transition to a low-carbon economy, and finally the formation of production methods and consumption patterns that are compatible with low-carbon development, this is a major trend in the future. The first three industrial revolutions were led by steam engines, electricity and computers, and the fourth industrial revolution will usher in an energy revolution led by new energy. At present, China is revising the Renewable Energy Law, preparing a new energy industry development plan, and promoting this new strategic
The industry is accelerating development.
2 Problems in the development of solar photovoltaic industry
(1) Relatively surplus capacity
In order to guide the healthy development of the polysilicon industry, avoid excessive competition in the industry, and promote energy conservation and emission reduction, the state has listed the polysilicon industry as an overcapacity industry, and through the use of economic and administrative means, resolutely curbed the momentum of overcapacity and redundant construction of polysilicon.
At present, many provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities all over the country have a new energy development boom, and more than 100 cities have proposed to build new energy bases. In 2008, China's polysilicon production capacity was 20,000 tons, and the output was about 4,000 tons. The capacity under construction was as high as 80,000 tons, and the production capacity was obviously surplus. In just two years, a sunrise industry with high investment, high returns and high barriers to entry has become an overcapacity industry in the blink of an eye. This once again shows a commonality in the development of various industrial sectors in China's large industrial era – in short supply. The project together with a surplus of capacity to eliminate backward production capacity.
(2) Market and raw materials abroad
China's photovoltaic power generation market is developing slowly. At present, the solar photovoltaic industry is at the two ends, that is, the upstream polysilicon material and the most downstream applications are abroad. 98% of domestically produced solar cells are used for export, which is equivalent to a large amount of energy that is scarce in China.
The raw materials are in foreign countries. There are four countries in the world. The United States, Japan, Germany, and Russia can produce relatively good polysilicon. These four countries all produce semiconductors. Our country can also produce, but the level of industry is different and the technical content is different. We don't really have intellectual property right now, or rarely. As for all aspects of environmental protection, energy consumption is far from the advanced level of foreign countries. It should be said that there are no particularly mature enterprises in our country.
Since photovoltaic is a typical 'two-outside' industry, it means that a lot of energy is consumed in China, causing a lot of pollution, but it produces clean energy in China, which is also an important reason for people to question the photovoltaic industry.
(3) Relatively high cost
In the world, solar energy has made rapid progress, but the proportion of solar energy is far less than 1% of the total global energy consumption. High cost is an important reason why solar energy is not widely used. Since the sun is only illuminated during the day, it is not necessarily sunny during the day. If you want to rely entirely on solar energy, you must find a way to store solar energy.
So far, we have not found a cost-effective way to store solar energy. The two methods currently being developed - compressed air and battery storage are very expensive.
At present, the cost of producing polysilicon in the world's major factories is around 25~30 US dollars, and the domestic average is about 70 US dollars/kg, and the quality of the seven major international factories is better than most domestic products. In this case, downstream companies are certainly willing to import. The price of 70 US dollars / kg, compared with the production cost of 25 to 30 US dollars / kg of the seven major polysilicon manufacturers, the profit is also rich enough.
To date, the most successful photovoltaic film technology has been cadmium telluride. But thin film technology relies on bismuth, which is one of the rarest metals in the world, used in memory chips, optical discs, and as a strengthening agent for lead and copper. From 2000 to 2006, the price of antimony rose more than seven times, and the rate of increase exceeded that of all other commodities. At present, solar cells based on germanium provide only 1% of the world's energy demand. As long as the film technology is significantly improved, the demand for bismuth will rise steadily. Some geologists believe that even in the current use, by 2020, cockroaches will become very scarce. Obviously, as long as the production of thin film solar cells expands, it will inevitably lead to a shortage of plutonium. Most of the plutonium comes from the refining of copper, but the energy price rises and the cost of copper mining becomes high. In this way, the price of antimony is also facing increasing pressure.
(4) Large comprehensive energy consumption
Photovoltaic power generation is an environmentally friendly industry, but the polysilicon used in photovoltaic cells is more expensive than the electrolytic aluminum known as the “electric tiger†in the refining process. At present, foreign leading companies use the modified Siemens method to produce polysilicon, and the comprehensive power consumption is below 150 kw·h/kg. However, due to the relatively backward technological level, some enterprises in China have a comprehensive power consumption of 200-300 kw·h/kg.
The production of polysilicon consumes such a large amount of electricity, and the demand for electricity in other manufacturing stages of solar cells is also high.
(5) There is a gap in quality
In the global polysilicon industry to stand firm, first of all, product quality is better, followed by cost effects, which requires integrated production. As we all know, the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of domestic polysilicon industry is that the lack of core technology leads to high cost and the quality of products cannot be guaranteed, so it is difficult to compete with international giants. Domestic production lines are mostly around 1,000 tons, mostly backward technologies. The purified polysilicon contains more impurities such as boron, phosphorus and copper.
(6) Low single line capacity
The polysilicon project is a high-energy-consuming industry. When the scale advantage of a single production line of 3,000 to 5,000 tons is not achieved, the high cost caused by environmental pollution and uneconomic scale is inevitable. At present, the domestic and international mainstream configuration is that the new production capacity is more than 5,000 tons per single line, and there are shared equipment, the technology is more high-end, and the cost is greatly reduced. The competition of enterprises in the future will be based on the capacity of 10,000 tons.
(7) The problem of pollution is outstanding
Although solar energy is a green energy source, solar upstream components and silicon raw materials are a highly polluting industry. Exhaust gas such as silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride and hydrogen is discharged during the manufacturing process of the product. In particular, silicon tetrachloride will dissolve into hydrochloric acid and other substances if it is not treated, which will contaminate the soil. Like many high-energy, high-pollution industries, European countries cannot afford the negative impact of their domestic production, and China has become the center of solar energy manufacturing.
Currently used is the carbon reduction method, which produces silicon with a large amount of carbon dioxide. In addition to a large amount of electrical energy, the generation of carbon dioxide directly brings about greenhouse gas emissions, which is clearly contrary to the current low-carbon economic development objectives advocated by the state. According to our calculations, 2 kg of carbon is required for every 1 kg of industrial silicon produced, and 2 kg of carbon dioxide is produced accordingly.
Previously, the polysilicon was produced by the Siemens method, and the highly toxic substance of the by-product silicon tetrachloride was not effectively treated, or it was buried in situ after being produced, or sold to downstream enterprises as raw materials for production. In recent years, domestic companies have begun to introduce a large number of foreign-improved Siemens methods and began industrial processing of silicon tetrachloride. Generally, hydrogen trichloride is produced by thermal hydrogenation technology and hydrochlorination technology, and polysilicon is produced by recycling.
However, whether it is thermal hydrogenation or hydrochlorination, the conversion rate of trichlorosilane generated by a single cycle of silicon tetrachloride can only reach between 20% and 30%. According to the current production level, one ton of polysilicon is produced with the formation of 10 to 15 tons of silicon tetrachloride by-products, and the by-products are much more than the main products. There is a saying that you can perform multiple cycles and eventually achieve 100% processing. A single cycle process consumes 10 kWh, which accounts for nearly 1/10 of the energy consumption of the entire polysilicon process.
(8) Loose industry organizations
Due to the long-term export of products, enterprises in the Chinese PV industry tend to be war-oriented and loosely organized, and it is difficult to unify when they need to be consistent. Photovoltaic companies have not paid attention to cooperation within the industry before. In the face of anti-dumping crisis, industrial coordination is very necessary. But in fact, there is no recognized industry organization and coordination mechanism in China's PV industry to coordinate the intricate interests between large factories, big factories and small factories. Only a few provincial PV industry associations can Play
It is also very limited.
3 Promoting the development of solar photovoltaic industry In 2009 China PV Power Generation Summit Forum, experts unanimously determined that although the global solar photovoltaic industry has entered the adjustment stage, the development trend will not change, and the solar energy industry is the most promising product in the new energy industry.
industry. Therefore, for polysilicon enterprises that have been put into production and have a good foundation, they can adjust their development pace, practice internal strength, stabilize the system, improve quality, reduce consumption, and cope with market changes. For polysilicon enterprises under construction with strong talents and strengths, when the market is sluggish and the prices of raw materials are low, the project construction will be completed at low cost, waiting for the economic recovery; for enterprises without technical support, talent and capital advantages, it is advisable to take this opportunity. Adjust the direction of development and minimize losses. Capable companies can merge and restructure.
(1) Promote industrial upgrading
For many energy companies, it is an urgent matter to quickly adapt to the new situation, accelerate structural optimization, improve management, and avoid overheating investment. For example, the country has begun to limit polysilicon projects with higher power consumption, but it is more encouraging for polysilicon projects with lower power consumption.
The scale of new polysilicon projects must be greater than 3,000 tons/year, and by 2011, the polysilicon production capacity with integrated power consumption greater than 200 kw·h/kg will be eliminated.
(2) Elimination of highly polluting enterprises
Polysilicon is not a highly polluting industry, and it can only cause pollution if it is not done well. There are two reasons for pollution: first, the funds are not invested, and second, the technology is not up to the level. To this end, the state should strengthen regulations and eliminate high-energy and high-pollution enterprises. In the future, the government should raise the environmental barriers for companies to enter. The scale of an enterprise that does not meet the standards for environmental protection can no longer enter the industry. The state has formulated a guiding policy for the healthy development of the polysilicon industry, and more should be done from the perspective of raising the environmental protection threshold. This
It will also become the direction of future policy development.
(3) Promote the decline of energy consumption
In the modified Siemens process, the hydrogenation of by-product silicon tetrachloride to trichlorosilane is a key step in the efficient use of resources and the reduction of polysilicon production costs. The traditional thermal hydrogenation process is carried out at high temperature (1 250 ° C) and high pressure (0.5 MPa), the disadvantages of high energy consumption and high cost; and the cold hydrogenation process can complete the reaction at 500 ° C, this technology Not only can reduce the energy consumption in the production process, but also can reduce the footprint of 80%, after calculation, every lkg of polysilicon produced, use
Cold hydrogenation technology will cost $10 less than thermal hydrogenation technology. From a global perspective, the modified Siemens method uses a hot chemical gas phase reaction route, which is the fundamental reason for its high energy consumption and high production cost. We should focus on the development of low-cost polysilicon new technology industry, using plasma to enhance chemical vapor reaction and flow. The combination of chemical bed technology gradually replaced the improved Siemens method.
(4) Promote industry alliance
The government and enterprises must further promote and jointly develop relevant policies, establish industrial alliances, and raise the barriers to entry of the polysilicon industry. The combination of production, education and research will promote China's polysilicon industry to a new level. The joint research of upstream and downstream enterprises in the domestic solar energy industry chain is an effective measure to improve the competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry. It is suggested that the state should take the lead in engaging in a thousand-ton enterprise. The state supports a part of the funds, and the participating enterprises invest, and the engineers and experts are gathered together.
Development, technology is open to participating companies, which can avoid low-level repetitive development of individual enterprises, reduce waste of resources, and promote the overall technical level of the industry.
The solar photovoltaic industry chain is very long. The government should set up a good platform to allow outstanding enterprises in each link to participate and take the road of joint R&D and market operation. For the enterprise, the core is to reduce costs and improve quality. Polysilicon enterprises should be properly opened. Each enterprise has its own strengths in technology, process, quality management, and business philosophy. It should share results and integrate resources.
(5) should be considered as a strategic industry
Although the prospects for new energy are broad, it is only just a glimmer of hope. While we are vigorously developing new energy sources, we must also keep a clear head – new energy is far from the time to “sing the protagonistâ€. New energy is the hope of the future, but it is not the pillar of today.
The development of photovoltaic power generation is currently a relatively extravagant thing for China. At present, it is not yet time for large-scale development. Looking back at the history of world energy development, every energy transformation has to undergo an arduous and long-term development process. Although fossil fuels such as oil and coal are one of the causes of global warming, the world's dependence on fossil energy will persist for a long time, and it is difficult for new energy sources to occupy a mainstream position in the coming decades. We need decades of hard work to truly build a new energy industry.
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